Silver bullet may work but existence of werewolves unproven

… maintaining the PbR element of the scheme at Peterborough until 2017 for the third and final cohort is not possible, as the majority of prisoners within that group will already be receiving 12 months supervision and rehabilitation as a result of the wider reforms to probation.

The above quote is the part of the recent Ministry of Justice (MoJ) press release which, as an aside, mentions the end of the UK’s highest profile social investment pilot, the Peterborough Social Impact Bond (SIB).

The perfunctory end of the Peterborough SIB contrasts markedly with the launch in 2010, when the then Prisons Minister, Crispin Blunt, visited HMP Peterborough to launch the scheme explaining: “This payment by results pilot is both innovative and imaginative. I am delighted to be launching it at HMP Peterborough today.

The Peterborough SIB involves social investors paying for charities and social enterprises to deliver a series of interventions designed to reduce re-offending, and managed by social investment intermediary, Social Finance, through a structure called, One Service. The MoJ then pays the investors based on the extent to which these interventions succeed in reducing re-offending. If the services work, the investors make a profit (the original plan was that they could end up with up to £8million based on an initial investment of £5million) and if services don’t work, the investors lose their money.

The Peterborough SIB is not ending early because it hasn’t worked, it’s ending because the government is privatising the probation service through a programme called Transforming Rehabilitation and, from mid-2015, the activity currently delivered by One Service will be the responsibility of whichever consortium wins the contract for the region that Peterborough is part of.

The evidence so far suggests that, understood on its own terms, the Peterborough SIB is working well. As Toby Eccles of Social Finance explains, the interventions funded through the scheme are reducing re-offending by 11%, compared to an increase of 10% nationally.

Eccles rejects suggestions that the curtailing of the pilot means the end for SIBs claiming: “Peterborough was not designed to be a test case for a national payment-by-results programme, but to enable innovation, to demonstrate the value of flexibility and focusing on outcomes, to bring greater rigour, and most importantly to shine a light on the woeful situation this country has with short sentence offenders. Against these objectives it has been and remains an iconic success, and a cause for celebration.

It’s perfectly reasonable for Eccles and the team at Social Finance to be proud of they work they’ve done and to draw attention to the positive social benefit delivered as a result but the overall impact of the Peterborough SIB’s existence and looming non-existence extends significantly beyond yet.

It wasn’t primarily a pilot for a way of delivering probation services, it was a pilot for a way of funding and measuring the delivery of probation services. The total investment in the Peterborough SIB was £5 million. The investors were mainly charitable trusts including: Barrow Cadbury Charitable Trust, the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation, Friends Provident Foundation, The Henry Smith Charity, Johansson Family Foundation, LankellyChase Foundation, The Monument Trust, Panahpur Charitable Trust, Paul Hamlyn Foundation and the Tudor Trust.

In addition to the money from investors, The Big Lottery Fund (BIG) provided £6.25 million to support the pilot, as part of an £11.25 million package to support the development of Social Impact Bonds with BIG’s then chief executive, Peter Wanless saying: “At a time of tight public finances, Social Impact Bonds represent a new and innovative way of attracting investment from outside the public sector and by funding Social Finance’s work we are hoping to pave the way for many more similar projects across the UK.

The Cabinet Office is also showed its support by launching its own Centre for Social Impact Bonds claiming that: “Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a new tool that unlock private finance and public investment so that organisations which are best placed to tackle social problems can do so on a payment by results basis.

So, does the Peterborough experience prove whether SIBs work? Not only do we not know the answer is or whose job it is to provide it, it’s not even clear whose job it is to ask the question.

The independent report on the (current) second phase of the Peterborough SIB, commissioned by the MoJ, is a useful exploration of the pros and cons of tackling re-offending through a range of interventions brought together by an outside agency, with ultimate payments based on results achieved rather than a series of units of activity, delivered by an agreed set of providers, specified in the contract.

It doesn’t tell us anything much about whether SIBs are the best mechanisms for delivering that kind of contract.As the report notes in its conclusion: “The absence of restrictions on how SIB funding could be spent was reported by interviewees to have facilitated the commissioning of new providers during the life of the pilot as well as joint funding of services with other local agencies. It is worth noting that, in principle, other funding mechanisms than SIBs could also benefit from this flexibility.

The Peterborough SIB didn’t raise any significant ‘private finance’ so beyond ‘not this’ we’re no closer to knowing what sort of offer might attract commercial investors to invest in a SIB, particularly one not subsidised with a £6.25 million grant.

Whether or not it’s appropriate or useful to have more SIBs funded by charitable trusts is – both before Peterborough and after it – primarily an opinion-based policy position. One view is that it’s wrong for trusts to risk their money potentially subsidising the unsuccessful delivery of public service contract. Another view is that trusts often give grants to projects that may ultimately become public services if they work, so SIBs are a more structured version of that, with the bonus that they may get their money back and could make a profit on their investment.

Over in the US, SIBs have been getting a kicking at a US Senate budget hearing. Nonprofit Quarterly quotes  Mark Fisher, of the Maryland House of Delegates, telling the hearing that: “SIBs do not produce cost savings when outcomes are achieved, even under highly optimistic assumptions. SIBs could effectively exclude new providers and program types that do not have a well established record of success with investors seeking to minimize risk.

Warming to his theme, Fisher adds: “In conclusion, SIBs are well intended, but they unnecessarily blow bureaucracies. Moreover, they have the potential of leading to crony capitalism. And as the Maryland Department of Legislative Services concluded, they do not save money.

Fisher’s colleague Kyle McKay is not keen either noting: “Proponents argue that social impact bonds will result in decreased expenditures, and thus, cost savings to the state. There’s a basic mathematical problem with this claim, though. Pilot programs do not operate at a scale large enough to produce significant cost savings to the government.

Amongst the Senators themselves, Rhode Island Democrat, Sheldon Whitehouse, seemed optimistic: “I think that there is at least the prospect of a real opportunity here, when new theories of ways to save money can meet the standard of a private investor.

On the other hand, Angus King, the Independent Senator from Maine, thought: “This just strikes me as…it’s a fancy way of contracting out.

Angus King is right but ‘a fancy way of contracting out’ might also be a socially useful one and it’s not clear that US SIBs-bashers’ criticisms are any more applicable to SIBs than they are to Payment by Results contracts in a general sense.

Nothing much is really being proved, these opinions are just some opinions but if your business model is based – as the Social Finance SIBs development business model is – primarily on getting high level policy makers to support your initiatives, changing directions in the tide of political and policy opinion are least as important as anything that actually happens.

That’s why the end of the Peterborough SIB is really significant because, as Dan Gregory notes here: “Social impact bonds were once the future; in fact, they were the future even just a few weeks ago” and now the announcement of the end of the UK’s flagship SIB is in paragraph 9 of the MoJ’s press release.

Initiatives that depend on political buy-in are inherently disposable. Ask Your Square Mile and the leaders of other Big Society projects. Politicians like SIBs because they like the idea of working with ‘private investors’ (even when there aren’t actually any involved). They like announcing things. They like having their picture taken with Sir Ronald Cohen.

Once you take those things away, and also take away the grant subsidies for the set-up process, you’re left with people commissioning local public services having to decide whether they want to commission some of those services in a complicated, expensive way on the basis that the innovative results may potentially save them some money in the future (or won’t maybe ever save them any money but may just be better).

After Peterborough, the chances of that happening on a significant scale are a small as they ever were and it’s no clearer whose interest it would be in if it did. The present government likes SIBs but not enough to even attempt to do anything that might cause them to be widely adopted at a local level.

None of this means the end for SIBs. Nick Clegg recently launched loads more and the idea still has enough political momentum to sustain plenty more nationally-supported subsidised pilots. After that, maybe SIBs will find what Dan Gregory calls: ‘a tiny niche as occasional PbR pilots‘ or maybe the model will evolve into something cheaper to administer that works for large numbers of commercial investors and public sector agencies. It’s not impossible but, based on what we’ve seen so far, it doesn’t seem likely.

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7 Comments

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7 responses to “Silver bullet may work but existence of werewolves unproven

  1. Flippin’ eck – you are sleuth and a half. Good work.

    Totally agree about the political side of things too. I’ve had my fingers burned working with the council in Wigan simply because of the politics involved. It really isn’t worth the bother getting too close to the public sector – better to work through an org that is prepared to shoulder that relationship but personally I don’t do anything direct with them.

    Keep up the good work – it’s really great to read your fearless, honest and unbiased reporting!
    :)

  2. OTOH, Vampires definitely exist.

    On Tuesday, Polly Toynbee had impact investment in the cross hairs when she wrote about the investment opportunity in troubled children:

    ‘Here’s the offer: a phenomenal 18% return guaranteed in one year, with your investment safely secured on a property (though in reality nothing is ever that secure). What is the business? Caring for the most disabled, disturbed and needy children in residential homes.

    As soon as I applied online for a brochure, eager Luke, the portfolio manager, called to hard-sell the investment. Caring for these children is highly profitable, he said, with each child worth at least £2,500 and up to £5,500 a week for the multiply disabled, abused and damaged. “The naughtier children pay more,” he explained, with a bit of a laugh – though “naughty” might not be in the official social care lexicon. There are, he said, long waiting lists of children needing places. He rattled through the figures: their four-bed homes will make £214,000 a year profit at 75% occupancy and a whacking great £624,000 profit at full-bed occupancy. The brochure breaks down all the costs: staff at £232,100, food at £12,600 and so on.’

    I’d been pointing at the same issue a few months ago::

    ‘Last year, Manchester City Council gave the green light to a scheme which will fund the transition of a small group of children from residential to foster care. It will be funded by a Social Impact Bond, which is a vehicle for private investment into public services.

    Another such scheme is planned in Essex

    The yield of the bond will be determined by the reduction in cost achieved in this transition, less the profit margin for the financier.

    There’s good reason to be optimistic for a healthy return, since annual residential care costs between £150,000 and £180,000, while foster care might cost between £20,000 and £40,000 for each child. This is according to figures from Social Finance Ltd.’

    http://www.p-ced.com/1/node/159

  3. V interesting. I think the Peterborough example has some key learning within it, perhaps in terms of considering when setting up SIBs the timescales over which they are operating given the vagaries of public policy change. I think in a way, by pulling out things that the pilot hasn’t told us, you’re also highlighting some of the key lessons. I would see it as a positive that we now know that this wasn’t an attractive offer for private investors and that more thinking is needed. Likewise, this has proved that the involvement of grant funding CAN be useful – there may be other models and options but there are nuggets here to draw from and with a concept such as SIBs in relative infancy, I think these are the things to hook on to.

  4. Great article and analysis. Would only add the Social Impact Bonds, like much of hyped “Impact Investing” in UK was not based on sound impact evaluation, so no wonder private investors aren’t interested. And if it were based on sound analysis proving impact and cost savings, why not cut out the middlemen investment bankers and fund directly and more cheaply from public purse?

    • Hi Niamh, Interesting you should bring that up. I was commenting about Northern Ireland some months ago on the matter of social investment:

      “The UK followed this top down rather than bottom up social investment approach through intermediaries with Big Society Capital whereas in Northern Ireland there was apparently greater insight into the needs of grassroots investment, with their Social Investment Fund”

      I was referring to a strategy paper which put forward the idea of a national scale investment fund, which made this point:

      “Project funding should be placed as a social-benefit fund under oversight of an independent board of directors, particularly including representatives from grassroots level Ukraine citizens action groups, networks, and human rights leaders. ”

      Within this evaulation of cost and benefit was a plan to transition children to family homes on a national scale, without intermediaries.

      http://www.managementexchange.com/hack/every-child-deserves-loving-family

      When you ask why not cut out the middleman , you may not be able to imagine the hegemony that would have threatened.

      • Hi Jeff

        Unfortunately, the NI Social Investment Fund is not a social investment fund. It is a grant programme, like so many before, and I have heard that a) projects knew in advance of application who would be funded and b) this was not unrelated to political affiliations. So here in NI, the more things change, the more they remain the same.

  5. Pingback: What do the Peterborough SIB interim results tell us? | Emma Tomkinson

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